Oct 3, 2008

Prepare for the Worst Labor Market in Many Years

The news on the labor market just continues to get worse, with the 9th straight monthly report of job losses nationwide the U.S. Labor Department reported today.

The Labor Department reported that employers cut 159,000 jobs in September, more than twice as many as in August or July. The September report was the biggest single monthly decline since 2003, when the economy was still in retreat from the 2001 recession (which became a three-year labor market recession).

“The U.S. consumer is in major trouble, with wage and salary income growth evaporating, credit extremely tight or unavailable, home prices continuing to decline, and food and energy costs consuming a large share of household budgets,” said Joshua Shapiro, an economist at MFR, a research firm in New York. “Whatever the government might or might not do to try to bail out the financial system, a consumer-led recession is upon us, and it promises to be a serious one” (as quoted in today's NY Times).

The regional labor market is sinking as well, but not quite as fast, although even that could change quickly, as the Boeing strike continues, the effects of Washington Mutual bust and other major layoffs reported recently work there way through the area. It looks right now like we are headed for the worst labor market in the area since the dismal 2001 - 2003 period.

The few remaining areas of strength (high tech, healthcare, and formerly aerospace), could begin to head south as businesses start to catch the same cold that consumers are already experiencing.

The credit markets are frozen, the housing market the worst in decades, and many area companies struggling, so put on your helmet and "hunker down" for what could be the worst labor market in several years, or worse.